Research Activities

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Has personal carbon trading ever been economically modelled?

Personal carbon trading is rarely the focus of economic research activities in Europe. Whenever it arrived on the political agenda, it was dropped over cost, public acceptance or political will1. In 2008 the UK government called it “an idea currently ahead of its time” and shelved it2. Now twenty years on, we hope our research will address that gap.

Who Would Win or Lose under Personal Carbon Allowances?

We model Carbon Accounts, the carbon budgeting scheme in the EcoCore Plan 2026, using Ravel (https://www.ravelation.net/), a data analysis tool developed by Prof Steve Keen. The next phase asks:

  • Can a national monetary system run on both sterling and Carbon Accounts, and how does the mechanism affect that system as a whole?
  • Whose emissions fall, who gains financially, and who bears the cost?
  • At what token price is each year’s cap met, and how much of the cut comes from cleaner production and how much from producing less?

Higher earners account for a disproportionate share of emissions (Oxfam (https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/confronting-carbon-inequality), 2020), but the poorest do not automatically gain: a household in a poorly insulated rented home can use more carbon than its income group’s average (Tyndall Centre Working Paper 136 (https://tyndall.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/twp136.pdf), 2009). The modelling tests both.

What Research is Being Done on Personal Carbon Trading in the UK?

  • a carbon footprint literature review with UCL students, aiming to publish in 2027
  • a first student cohort on an economic feasibility study, Introducing a Carbon Currency Policy, aiming to publish in 2028

What Research on Carbon Allowances is Planned for the Next Few Years?

The first output is a peer-reviewed paper answering the three questions. Beyond it, we aim to:

  • publish further papers with organisations campaigning to reform how money is created, and economists who study it
  • bring in specialists in household finances, behaviour and energy systems
  • publish the Ravel model and its data, and invite another university to test the results independently
  • study public acceptance through surveys and citizens’ workshops
  • submit evidence to the Climate Change Committee and parliamentary select committees
  • secure multi-year research funding, and get EcoCore approved to lead its own research council bids

How can Researchers Get Involved in Personal Carbon Trading Research?

If you research economics, household finances, behaviour or energy systems, or could test the model independently, get in touch (https://ecocore.org/contact/).

  1. Bothner: “Personal Carbon Trading—Lost in the Policy Primeval Soup?”, Sustainability 13(8), 4592 (MDPI Sustainability) 2021 ↩︎
  2. Defra UK: “Synthesis report on the findings from Defra’s pre-feasibility study into personal carbon trading“, paragraph 1.7 Dept for Environment Food Rural Affairs, UK Government Web Archive) 2008 ↩︎